Thursday, June 21, 2007

Retractions and Loose Ends

Today in class we were talking about the importance of forecasting. I remembered a couple of the models I used last year (while taking a Forecasting class) to predict how Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce would perform the next 2 NBA seasons (at the time, there was a rumor that the Celtics were trading for Iverson). I posted my predictions here.

Like a good prognosticator, I'm going to post how I did (the blue represents numbers I felt good about):
I said: "In ’06-07 Iverson will average: 26.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 7 APG."

Actual results: Iverson had 26.3 PPG, 3 RPG, and 7.2 APG. I was a little off on the rebounding, but otherwise not bad!

I said: In ’06-07 Pierce will average: 28.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 5 APG

Actual results: Pierce had 25 PPG, 5.90 RPG, and 4.1 APG.

Pierce clearly underperformed. For '07-08 , I had their #'s declining slightly. So, expect Pierce to decline further than predicted as he is a player in clear decline.

NBA GMs should hire me to forecast player performances and negotiate salaries. I'll be available in January!

Last year, I also advocated a boycott of the New York Times. Since it's been my homepage for a while, and I cite articles frequently from it, I guess it's time to retract this statement.
The reason I was upset was because they were now charging for their editorial content. They since have decided to give it to university students for free, so I now can read Friedman, Kristoff, and Krugman. I noticed that I didn't really miss them all that much once I had them back.

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