The first thing you notice is that Kentucky had 70 FGAs! In an era without the shot clock. Wow! What was the pace of the game?
Well, they didn't collect data on Offensive Rebounds until 1999, so it's hard to calculate Possessions (FGA - OReb + TO + FTA*.4). I estimate ORebs by multiplying Total Rebounds by .33 (this causes some problems, more on that later). I then use those numbers to calculate the other team's ORebs. It comes out to 80.2 possessions for UK! The fastest-pace team in Div-I today averages about 80.2 possessions, and most teams going that fast aren't very good.
It shed light on why the Old Timers say "Kentucky basketball is fast-break basketball!"
Texas Western only had 67.6 possessions. They played a slower pace and were better at getting to the free throw line. It worked well.
Kentucky's Offensive Rating (points/possessions) was a dismal 0.81.
This spurred me to look up other historical games and do the same math. The next time UK played in the Championship was 1975, under Joe B. Hall (John Wooden's last game). The knock on Hall was that he played slower than Rupp. But in that fast-paced game, Kentucky took 86 shots and had 91.7 possessions! UCLA had 78.7 possessions, still fast, but slower than UK in the UCLA win.
In 1978 against Duke, UK had 83.3 possessions and pulled the win thanks to good-shooting by Jack Givens. (w/my Offensive Rebounding formula, the Offensive Rating totals say Duke won, which is impossible. So, .33 doesn't quite work in this case but is as close as you can get).
When UK went to the Twin Towers in the 80's of Bowie and Turpin, pace slowed quite a bit. In the 1984 Final Four, UK had only 63.4 possessions in probably the most miserable loss ever by a team ranked so high.
Pace picked up when Pitino came on board. In the 92 Duke vs. UK game, Kentucky took 65 shots on 80.3 possessions (remember, this was OT). The '96 game saw 73 FGAs on 79.9 possessions. Rupp would have been proud. The '97 team had 77.8 possessions, almost 18 more than Arizona, and loss as Arizona was efficient in scoring at their slower pace.
Contrast this with Tubby Smith's team in '98. Against Duke in the Elite 8, Kentucky had 70.8 possessions, and against Utah in the championship game Kentucky had only 66.8 possessions. Tubby's teams were slower overall, thus leading to complaints about his style.
Pace is declining in basketball overall. In the NBA this has been evident for some time, observe the chart from Dean Oliver:
So, when you hear pundits moan about how teams don't score 130 points every night, know that teams are more efficient than when they did score that many.What about BCG? UK had 56 FGAs and 79.8 possessions in the very fast-pace loss against Louisville. This was the fast exception to the slow rule for him, though. We'd have perhaps been wiser to slow the pace down, as we did against Tennessee (62 possessions). I don't think you'll see Kentucky take 70 shots in a game again anytime soon. And if they do, I might not like it.
So, as Texas Western wisely figured out in 1966, slow the pace down against a team that likes to run and you will likely increase your chances of winning. Kentucky may have been fast-break basketball in the past, but fast-break basketball is more for losers these days than winners.
6 comments:
i'm still trying to figure out what the big shock is that a black team beat an all white team...there's a surprise.
I watched that game as a young man. I am troubled now that so much attention is given to the racial aspects of that game. I refuse to watch the movie because it is so full of inaccuracies. Very little was made of the racial makeup of Texas Western, etc. when the game was played. I truly did not even consider that at the time and magazines such as SI did not either. This talk has mostly come as some pundits look back and make a big deal of it.
Thanks for the comments. As the linked post indicates, I have a problem with a lot of Hollywood "true story" movies that re-write the real story and include things that didn't happen in attempts to make (what appear to be) political statements.
Most of Rupp's comments in the movie are actual quotes, I just don't understand how they could be considered racist remarks and why the Haskins character keeps glaring at him as if he's evil.
As this post indicates, Texas Western didn't start 5 blacks to "try to run" on Kentucky as the movie says. Kentucky was the running team, TW played a slower pace.
As I remember from that Final Four, Kentucky had at least two and maybe three of our players at maybe 50% because of the flu- it was said in the movie that Kentucky simply was not quick enough to stay with Texas Western- but I would have loved a chance for UK to have played the Miners at full strength.
Texas Western was 23-1 and #3 in the nation (behind UK 24-1 at #1 and Duke at #2) coming into NCAA.
They beat #7 Cincy and #4 Kansas to get to FF then clobbered Utah B4 defeating #1 UK for the NC.
Clearly the best team in March 66.
The flu excuse is BS.
Pat Riley and others have always stated that TW was superior athletically and as a team. My point was that TW's strategy in playing a slower tempo (against Rupp's ridiculously fast tempo) also bears some credit. 0.81 points per possession is dismal, especially in a championship game.
The only UK game this season that comes close is the 0.77 we laid at Indiana.
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