Sunday, February 03, 2008

Your Super Bowl Pick (2008)

While Brady will be holding up the trophy at the end of the game, the smart money is on the Giants!



The line opened at NE by 14, then moved to NE by 12 over the past 2 weeks (as betting came in top-heavy on the Giants).

What do the predictors say? Prediction Tracker updated this morning, but is still missing a prediction from the top predictor during the second half of season, Cover81.

The average of all reporting predictors says New England by 9.90, with a standard deviation of 3.43. That gives a range of 6.47 to 13.33. So, 12 is in the upper range of this prediction.

Judging by the average of all of predictors, there is a 19.4% chance that the Giants won't beat the spread, or an 80.6% chance of the Giants beating the spread.

The season's overall top 4 predictors (excluding Cover 81) predict, on average NE by 10.44. The upper bound factoring in standard deviation is 12.22!

The top predictors for the 2nd half of the season (perhaps a better measure, since data at mid-season is stronger than in the first few weeks) average out at NE by a mere 7.91. The highest prediction is NE by 9.1 , 3 points lower than the spread! Missing Cover81's data hurts, and I sent him an email...maybe he'll send me his number.

So, the consensus among the predictors is clearly that the Giants will beat the spread. Those who have been more accurate lately say it will be a close game!

Note: I don't condone gambling, but this is as clear-cut a pick as I've seen in a long time.

2 comments:

JTapp said...

Predictor updated at 2:30pm EST w/an updated Vegas line of 12.5. If that line holds, then the predictors now give the Giants an 87.9% chance of beating the spread...

JTapp said...

If this post made you (or anyone you know) money then please post a comment.