Saturday, January 31, 2009

My Super Bowl Pick- Pittsburgh

Surfing on over to TBeck's prediction tracker, one can see that almost all the "computer" predictions are in:

 Home      Visitor    Opening   Updated  Prediction  Prediction      Prediction
line line Avg. Median Standard Deviation

Arizona Pittsburgh -7.00 -6.50 -7.04 -6.47 2.70

So, while betting is apparently heavy on the Arizona side, the data say that Pittsburgh is going to win. I only see one predictor that picks Arizona--by 3.

Note-- these numbers are similarly lopsided to last year's predictions for Patriots domination over NYG. Last year the predictors clearly expected the Giants to beat the spread, but not win the game.

Given that most Super Bowls end up in a blowout, that's what my prediction is this year:

Pittsburgh to beat the spread and put the smack down. Arizona will just be happy to be there, much of Pittsburgh has been there before and know they're expected to win. They don't want to get upset like the Patriots did.

Update: Brian Burke's model gives Pittsburgh a 69% chance of winning.

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