Monday, February 02, 2009

I was wrong---and gladly.

So, I was wrong about Pittsburgh beating the spread.


The above is the win probabilities chart on Advanced NFL Stats. I kept up with this play-by-play in the second half, it was incredible. You can see the big jump from Arizona being a slight favorite when they were 1st-and-goal just before halftime. Harrison's interception return gave Pittsburgh an 85% and made me feel pretty confident (note: I never put any money down anywhere). The probability of a Steeler win creeped up to 99% in the 4th quarter, before Arizona pulled the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. They had an 82% chance of winning at the start of Pittsburgh's final drive.

If it weren't for the record penalties, it would have been among the greatest SB finishes of all time. Still, that was a fun 4th quarter.

Halftime show was also great, The Boss never disappoints.

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